India keeps on making the same mistakes

You know what the definition of insanity is? It is to keep on doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting a different result each time. That's where the Indian Government is now.

I talked earlier about what happened to the 25,000 people, who were marching to Delhi. What happened to that peaceful protest by the 25,000 people who wanted to go see their representatives? Nothing. Police herded them away into a compound, refused to let them meet Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India and then it all just dribbled away. Remember what they wanted? All they wanted was their legitimate rights. The rights to the land they owned and which was taken away forcibly and criminally. Land which was common land at first, but has become private land, and that land was promised to them, but nothing has been delivered.

While discussing this with some people, one comment was, "they should form a political party and fight for their rights". Well, they did, or rather they tried and nothing happened. But for long term political movements, what you need are full bellies. When your children are having a distended belly in front of you, then you are more inclined to riot and destroy for food. And I am afraid that is what is already happening. The current government coalition as well as the opposition coalition comprises of a bunch of frankly consumerist blind corrupt politicians who frankly do not give a toss about the populace. This brings me to the most threatening factor to India, the Naxalites.

So if nobody listens when people talk to you peacefully, you might listen when the talk becomes violent. Speaking to an intelligence chap at the Indian Embassy here in London, he talked about 200 districts, which are now impacted by Naxalites. Many districts in a vast swathe of the country are now being ruled by Naxalites. Yes! Ruled! There is NO INDIAN GOVERNMENT there whatsoever. No mandi tax, no octroi, no district administration, no public health centres, no electricity, no irrigation officials and certainly no forestry people.

For those who think this does not matter, remember what happened to POSCO? the biggest FDI in India, 12 Billion. This was announced 4 years ago, and nothing has happened. Here is my prediction: nothing will happen and very soon, a full fledged insurrection will break out targeted at the South Koreans. In 2 years maximum, you will see Korean or Posco employee fatalities. And there is a better than even chance that this investment will be withdrawn.

Remember these Naxalites are Maoists, and one of the central tenets of Maoism is control over the countryside. So while we are having fun and orgasms over the Sensex reaching 20,000, the base of our country is being sucked dry by these maggots and termites. Between the venality of the politicians and the ideological maneuvering of the Maoists, the poor are getting poorer and stay ignored. Once the rural countryside is in their hands, the urban areas become useless and thrash around like fish out of water.

More importantly, for those of you who are living in the cities and towns in and around these districts in MP, UP, Bihar, Orrisa, AP, WB, etc., you will notice that the cost of foodgrains, vegetables and beedis is steadily going up. Have you also asked around to find where the tax take is coming from? No, the onions which you eat are now coming from further away from the towns and they are being shipping in from further as local produce is not happening. Have you noticed that the freight insurance costs are going up by much more than the rate of inflation? Now this is still not feeding into national inflation as it is not happening in the big population centres (our inflation measurement is highly urbanised), but this will happen soon and we will have fun! And these stupid politicians keep on making the same mistake over and over again! So many governments have fallen because they did not deal with rising prices (remember the onion crisis which screwed the BJP in 1998? The Janta Dal in 1980?)

25,000 of our fellow countrymen came in and went away saddened, all they wanted was "do bigha jamin". The intelligence fellow said that the estimated strength of the jihadis in India is about 200 hardcore. There are 200,000 naxalites, with more than 120 million sympathisers. Do you see where I am going?

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!

Terrorism has to be fought smartly

I keep on telling people that terrorism is not just a military or police affair. It has to be fought at every level, ranging from yes, the military or force and to the economic to the developmental to the ideological levels. But for most, the idea that you can just reach out and whack a terrorist is much easier and better than working slowly on developing roads, changing curriculums, offering small loans to entrepreneurs in the villages, removing corruption, etc. etc. But don't just take my word for it, here's what one of the very rare chaps who has won a terrorist campaign says about the Naxalite Terrorist problem in India:

There are currently two principal schools of thought on tackling the Naxalite problem. One advocates treating it as a law and order problem, and the other as problem of development.

Development-oriented solutions normally envisage the building of roads, provision of drinking water, schools, electricity and fair price shops to villages, and the creation of employment, for instance, under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme.

Regrettably, there is no evidence that this ‘development solution’ has succeeded in tackling Naxalism anywhere. Worse, wherever Naxalism has been able to establish a measure of influence, the ‘developmental solution’, in fact, becomes impossible to implement.

Maoists disrupt developmental projects as a matter of strategy, attack government officials and establishments,  and very successfully intimidate all branches of civil administration. Further, even where such a degradation of capacities has not occurred, the impact of various developmental schemes and initiatives have been negligible on the ground, principally because of corruption, and political and administrative ineptitude. On the other hand, stringent action under existing laws has successfully curbed a number of insurgent and terrorist movements in India, including Naxalism in different phases and locations.

The current and very successful campaigns against the Maoists in Andhra Pradesh are a case in point. Such an approach demands the constant, but surgical application of force against narrowly identified targets, and a continuous succession of operations in which many lives are lost on both sides.

Crucially, however, such an approach is not complete in itself. Once the security forces have established dominance, it is imperative that the integrity of civil administration be restored in such areas, and developmental works commence. Regrettably, the record in this regard has been poor, and many hard-won victories have been wasted through subsequent administrative and political failures.

A third stream of response has recently emerged and quickly been consumed by controversy, but deserves greater attention. The Salwa Judum initially surfaced in parts of Bastar in Chhattisgarh as an authentic and peaceful mass response by the people themselves, when they collectively decided to withhold cooperation from the Maoists. Regrettably, the movement lost direction and momentum after political elements and the administration tried to piggyback on its success. Nevertheless, there is tremendous scope for actual popular resistance, and this requires not armed action by ‘people’s groups’, but creation of awareness among the people, their education for resistance to Maoist dictates, and for cooperation with state agencies. The reality is that a mix of all these three measures is required, and will alone be successful.

KPS Gill was advisor, Anti–Naxalite Operations, Chhattisgarh and former director general of police, Punjab

Technorati Tags: Naxalites , Terrorism , Counter Terrorism , Development , India

Government stops functioning in Rural India

Naxalites are dangerous stuff for India. They operate inside the rural areas where the rule of government is bad, sad or corrupt. And now more than 1/3rd of districts of India are thought to be under the control of these Naxalites. And the problem is that it becomes a vicious circle. More the districts fall under Naxalite control, less and less is the government control. See here for example on the issues relating to posting government officials to Naxalite infested districts. I quote:

BHUBANESWAR: The State Government is preparing an incentive package for its employees working in nine Naxal-infested districts to arrest the trend of a large number of vacancies.
A proposal will soon be submitted to the Government, sources said. With Naxals spreading their wings, Government employees are reluctant to get posted in ‘red’ zones. A large number of vacancies in these districts has become the major stumbling block in the process of development.

Technorati Tags: India , Terrorism , Counter Terrorism , Naxalites