Major General Wingate–the friend

What a man!

Some excerpts:

Modern war is war of penetration in almost all its phases. This may be of two types. Tactical or strategic. Penetration is tactical where armed forces carrying it out are directly supported by the operations of the main armies. It is strategic when no such support is possible. That is when a penetration group is living and operating 100 miles or more in front of its own armies. Of the two types long range penetration pays by far the larger dividends on the forces employed. These forces operating with small columns are able, wherever a friendly population exists, to live and move under the enemies ribs and thus to deliver fatal blows at his military organisation by attacking vital objectives which he is unable to defend from such attacks. In the past such warfare has been impossible owing to the fact that control over such columns, indispensable both for their safety and their effectual use, was not possible until the age of the easily portable wireless set. Further the supply of certain indispensable materials such as ammunition, petrol, wireless sets and spare parts is impossible until the appearance of communications aircraft.

nice one, i like this and am going to use it in my sales organisation I never get tired of telling people, be out there behind the client’s lines…

This leadership quote is brilliant as well

Quite a lesson there isn't there. Here is a man who says to his men, "I am going to do the best for you. I am going to make sure that everything that you want you get. I am going to make sure that you are battle hardened. I am going to make sure that you are fully equipped and trained to take on the Japanese, and then we are going to defeat them, and I am going to make sure that you do it because I am going to do it as well".

nice one, I only wish I can say that….

Help Pakistan’s Police instead of the Army

This report from Rand makes very good sense. Most terrorism is actually resolved by pretty much bog standard police work, counter terrorism is the same. Another benefit of better quality police work is to improve crime and reduce offshoots such as narco-terrorism etc. And frankly, pouring in money into the Pakistani Army hasnt helped much now, has it? More reasons here and I quote:

There are many reasons why the army can't fix what ails the nation. First, sustained use of the army against its own citizens goes against the grain. A number of Pakistani officers have told me that they did not join the army to kill Pakistanis; they joined to kill Indians. Officers themselves debate whether the army can successfully oust the militants, and even if it can, whether it could hold the area for long. The army's past and recent track record in clearing and holding territory is not encouraging.

Second, the army has resisted developing a counter-insurgency doctrine. It prefers to plan and train for conventional battles and views its struggle against insurgents as a "low-intensity" conventional conflict. Washington has been slow to understand that this is not a quibble over semantics but a serious difference in how the army intends to contend with the threat. The Pakistani army believes India is its principal nemesis, not the insurgents who have occupied the Swat valley and destabilized Pakistan and the region.

Third, the army's sledgehammer attempt to expel militants from their various redoubts has devastated much of Pakistan's Pashtun belt, flattening villages and forcing more than three million people to flee. The devastating blitzkrieg shows that the Pakistani army resists developing an effective counter-insurgency capability to secure, not dispossess, the local population.

A police force-led effort would be better than one led by the army, as the history of successful counterinsurgency movements in disparate theatres across the globe shows. Militants understand the potential power of the police even if Washington and Islamabad do not. Since 2005, insurgents and terrorists have killed about 400 police each year in suicide bombings, assassinations, and other heinous crimes, according to Hassan Abbas, a former police officer in Pakistan who is now a research fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

The police make for easy targets because they are outgunned, under-resourced, inadequately equipped and poorly trained. Because most don't even have the same lucrative death benefits as army personnel, many have simply fled the fight to protect their families. Police officers in Swat have even taken out newspaper advertisements declaring that they have left the force in hopes that insurgents will spare them and their families. To take the lead in fighting the militants, Pakistan's police will need training, modern weaponry, personal-protection equipment, life insurance and access to civilian intelligence.

Police in Pakistan are admittedly widely reviled for being corrupt. However there are encouraging signs of change. Several policing organizations, such as the National Highways and Motorway Police, the Islamabad Police and the Lahore Traffic Police have all gained the trust of their citizenry through professional and courteous conduct. In these forces, police are paid a handsome salary and are subject to strict accountability for their performance. Their new salaries are too valuable to lose by taking small bribes.

Pakistan's police leadership seems up for the challenge. Since 2000, Pakistan's own police leadership has led the demand for police reform only to be stifled by military and civilian political leadership who benefit from a corrupt police force that does their bidding. It's time for the international community to support these unexpected reformers.

So far, only 2.2% of U.S. funding to Pakistan has gone to assisting the police — $268 million between 2002 and 2008 for narcotics control, law enforcement and border security. The U.S. has an enormous opportunity to help the one Pakistani institution that actually wants American help.
Should the Obama administration embrace this task, it will need to change its approach to police training, and it will need international partners. The State Department, which has traditional responsibility for this area, cannot do it alone. As the experience with police training in Afghanistan has shown, the Department of Defense has to step in to take the lead on police training. Unfortunately, the international community has resisted supplying trainers or resources to the Afghanistan effort and some contractors have not performed well.

Terrorists also want educated youth

For those who think that education is a panacea for all terrorism ills, read this. I quote:

Terrorists and banned extremist groups are no more the sole headaches of
anti-terrorist squads and special operations groups of police departments in
eastern and north-eastern states. Rather, their main headache of late has been sleeper cells, whose members, though not directly involved in terror acts, form the information backbone of underground subversive outfits.
An IB (Intelligence Bureau) review reveals that in the recent past, most banned terror groups have overhauled their sleeper cells to bring in educated youth who do not have police records. The sources said, apart from overhauling sleeper cells, banned outfits had made them more broad-based to place moles in various institutions so far untouched.
“We have specific information that these groups have agents in schools, colleges, universities, hospitals, courts, clubs, hotels and big recreational centres, among other places,” a senior IB officer said. The agents are a wide variety of personnel from medical and engineering students, NGO workers, hotel and club employees and teachers to court clerks. The IB officer said none of them has a criminal background and banned outfits do not involve them in their day-to-day operations. “Their job is to update terror groups on the developments in their respective areas of operation and residence. While some sleeper cell members share ideology with banned outfits, a majority does the job for money,” he said.

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

I wonder what the OIC will make of this?

The OIC, without fail and very regularly, gives out a statement about how bad the situation is in Kashmir. And now, Afghanistan, a fellow OIC member, is in Kashmir to learn how to handle counter insurgency and counter terrorism methods. Perhaps they should look to Pakistan.... :)

how amusing :)

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

Counter Terrorism - a purely political or military or both solution?

An interesting book review here. The review is curious as it is obvious that the reviewer has not been exposed to actual counter terrorism efforts. For example, he talks about the fact that because USA is such as vast country, it is impossible to stop terrorism. Well, d'oh, of course it is. But that kind of blanket security checks stops the vast majority of terrorist events. It is like saying, you cannot stop dying because the number of diseases is so many that you cannot stop them all. So no point in medicine at all and lets just stick to prayer or perhaps sing kumbaya.

Fighting terror needs both military and political solutions. For those who are looking to get their rewards in heaven, well, you can do nothing but to help them get it without getting it from us here on earth. But you have to make it very difficult and expensive for the terrorists to force them to the political negotiating table.

Then there is the communist school of fighting terrorism which I am sure he would know about. Whether we are taking about Ukrainians in old USSR, Chechnya in Russia, the Uighurs or Tibetans in China or the peasants in Communist ruled West Bengal, the idea is simple, kill them all. If you cant kill them all, then kick them all out. If you cant kick them all out, then migrate your own people into the affected region to change the demographic character (such as the Lop Nor region or the Tibet region). And if that does not work either, over-react massively with state forces on the local citizenry.

Thank god liberal democracies tend not to follow the communist school. I have now got the book on my reading list and will review the book in due time!

Technorati Tags: Counter-Terrorism,Terrorism,Communism,Russia,USSR,China,India

Iraq Violence Dropping

Well, seems like the surge is impacting the violence in Iraq in complex ways, but its showing up in reduced violence.

The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June.
The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June.

Very very cautious optimism, but about 15 years to go yet!

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

The Hearts and Minds Campaign in Kashmir

Three stories came up today, and each of them are very good steps indeed. Each will help immeasurably in the hearts and minds campaign that is a vital component in any counter terrorist campaign.

Terrorism can never be defeated by military, security and policing alone, one needs to address the issues relating to the underlying cause. If that is not possible (for example if its religious in nature), then you cut out the support of the terrorists. If you do that, then the terrorist campaign will simply wither away by itself. Terrorists fear only one thing, that is to lose the support of the population. If that happens, then their crucial advantages over the security forces (hiding inside the population, getting additional recruits, getting funds, getting sustenance, propaganda, etc.) is negated!

So the fact that the Indian Defence Minister has promised to pay more for the rent on army occupied farmland is good. This will make the farmers happy.

The second story is that the Army will vacate schools, hospitals and other public buildings is great. For two reasons, the visibility of the armed forces will drop (which is a victory for the state!) and second, the life for the common man will progressively return to normal and state services such as schooling, medical care and the like can be provided.

For separatist terrorists such as the Kashmiri ones, the fact that a Kashmiri is actually going into a state school, getting treated in a state hospital etc. etc. each will cut into his support. After all, their whole reason for existence is to say that the current state is not providing the services that they think they want. But if they start doing schooling, health care, driving licenses, and the like, then the state starts to establish its presence!

The other story was that 85 Indian officers and soldiers have been found guilty of HR violations in Kashmir and will be punished. Unfortunately, given the nature of the beast the army is facing, HR offences are going to happen. But the fact that its going to happen does not mean that they get away with it. There is nothing worse than the population to see army men committing crimes and getting away with them. The population needs to see the army as their guardians, their elder brothers, their friends. It is only then that they will trust the army and the state enough to get away from the terrorists. So very good step as well.

Good steps and good counter-terrorist strategy as well.

Technorati Tags: Counter-Terrorism , Kashmir , India , Armies , Human Rights

Most Afghans Want Foreign Troops to Stay:

Now here's a surprise. (sighs!!!), when will those namby pamby idiots who are demanding the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan know and understand that its just the NATO forces which are saving them from those bearded Taliban fundo's? Those who bomb schools and cannibalise their own????

Most Afghans Want Foreign Troops to Stay: Poll
20/10/2007

MONTREAL (AFP) - Most Afghans see NATO troops' presence in their country as positive, and want them to stay, a poll published in Canadian media found.

The survey done by the company Environics for CBC, The Globe and Mail and La Presse, questioned more than 1,500 Afghans.

According to the survey 60 percent of those polled saw the presence of foreign troops in their country as positive while 16 percent saw it as a bad thing.

In the south, in the Kandahar region, where the presence of Taliban is stronger than in the north, the percentage of people opposed to NATO troops' presence is higher at 23 percent but 61 percent still are in favor.

Fourteen percent of those surveyed said they wanted foreign troops out immediately.

According to Environics, 38 percent said they thought foreign troops should be in their country for periods of 1-5 years, and 43 percent said they should stay as long as it takes to defeat the Taliban and restore order.

A large majority, 73 percent, said they had a very or rather negative view of the Taliban.

Fifty-one percent of those polled said their country was headed in the right direction (48 percent in the Kandahar area) while 73 percent said conditions for women had improved.

Only 40 percent said they believed that with foreign support the Afghan government would defeat the Taliban. Twenty-nine percent said it was too early to say, and 19 percent believe the Taliban will be back in power once foreign troops pull out.

The poll of 1,578 people was taken September 17-24. It has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Technorati Tags: Afghanistan , NATO , Taliban , Terrorism , Counter-terrorism

Long Term solutions to the Afghan Poppy Crop problem

The Afghan Poppy crop is a very knotty problem for NATO and rest of the world. The poppy crop converts into hard drugs which is sold in the west. The money from this drug trade fuels the Taliban. Who use the money to kill innocents and the British/Americans and others. So effectively, we are funding our own deaths. Now the theoretical solution is simple, make drugs free, so no more money for drugs, no more money for weapons and we can kick Taliban behinds!

But we have banned hard drugs, and as soon as you ban something for which there is demand, it will flood in via illegal means. But the supply and demand levers are pressed differently as I explored here.

So what do you do to control the Afghan crop in the absence of the economically aligned solution? I came across this research report which suggests that the only way to remove the crop is to give them an alternative crop (with at least equal revenues/income). But given the situation in Afghanistan, that is simply impossible with lack of irrigation, market places, infrastructure, credit, seeds, etc.

One proposal is to licence the Afghans to raise poppy to be used in medicines. Once you have licenced and legalised it, then you keep the Taliban out of the value chain. But legalised poppy growing is anathema to the Americans and that put paid to that one.

I quote more solutions from the report:

Another proposal would allow for continued cultivation, but with gradual reduction and replacement over a six- year period. There would have to be flexibility in the application of the law to allow growing to continue, but the proposal takes into account President Hamid Karzai's constant reminder to his international allies that this is a long-term problem. There are also proposals for micro-credit schemes to allow farmers to diversify into other areas, as well as for providing finance to improve agricultural conditions. Such schemes would enable, for example, the construction of 'delayed-action dams' to offset the effects of drought by conserving local water supplies. Other options would include low-level retraining schemes for those involved in cultivation and courses during which the 'student' would be paid while gaining the necessary skills for a future after poppy cultivation.

All in all, the proposed solutions are not easy and it certainly is not a silver bullet. We need to be prepared for many of our soldiers to die from the bullets of the enemy which we help to fund. It is the saddest irony indeed. Just reinforces my firmly held belief that when you violate the laws of economics, the ordinary people suffer.

Technorati Tags: Afghanistan , Drug , Crime , USA , War on Terror , Terrorism

Saudi Arabia to build a security wall to seal off Iraq

As I have discussed before, walls and fences are strictly short term measures. They do work after a fashion. I have also suggested that certain countries become so contagious and stinky that people like to wall them off like the case of Pakistan.

Now we hear that Saudi Arabia is now planning to build a wall to separate itself from Iraq. As we already know, majority of the insurgents and suicide bombers in Al Queda or elsewhere are from Saudi Arabia and Saudi citizens are still funding a fundamentalist creed across the world. Its like Saudi Arabia is the nursery and treasury and Pakistan is the university of all these terrorists.

In any case, I am not very sure what's the point of building a wall. Do they think that that will stop the bored, idiotic, in-bred Saudi jihadi youth from nipping across to Iraq? Take a look at the map. What's stopping them from driving across Kuwait, or Jordan or Jordan/Syria into Iraq?

Ah!, they dont mind these jihadi's from going outside Saudi Arabia, they do mind them coming back in. Its like these incidents just did not happen. Can camels bury their heads in the sand?

Incidentally, every time I hear the word walls, I am reminded of GuruKobi's words:

Mind Without Fear
Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high;
Where knowledge is free;
Where the world has not been broken up
into fragments by narrow domestic walls;
Where words come out from the depth of truth;
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection;
Where the clear stream of reason
has not lost its way into the dreary desert sand of dead habit;
Where the mind is led forward by thee into ever-widening thought and action---
Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

Riyadh - Saudi Arabia is to build a security wall "soon" along its northern borders with Iraq, according to a statement made by Saudi Interior Minister Prince Naif Bin Abdel-Aziz, local reports said Tuesday. According to the Saudi-based Arab News newspaper, the grand project is aimed at securing the 900-kilometre desert stretch along the border with Iraq by preventing the passage of militants and illegal foreigners into the kingdom.

The project comes as Saudi Arabia is increasingly worried that the turmoil in Iraq could cause "an overspill of sectarian violence and terrorism" into its own territories, according to the paper.

"The protection line will represent two rows of barbed wire equipped with the newest radar and infrared viewing devices," Mansur al-Turki, spokesman for the Interior Ministry, had told Arab News earlier. Cost of the wall is estimated at four billion Saudi Riyals.

Five major Saudi Arabian companies are currently bidding for the project. The contract for construction "will be awarded soon," according to the interior minister

Israel's Military Intelligence Performance in the Second Lebanon War

An interesting report crossed my in-box, which compared the intelligence performance of Israel during the Second Lebanon War. Broadly speaking, it did very well in the strategic aspects but failed miserably on the tactical aspects, therefore letting Hizbollah escape without the overwhelming defeat which is usually the fate of Israeli opponents.

The author points to two aspects. The first and frankly admirable aspect is that of Hizbollah, it has amazing security protocols, which made it impossible for israeli intelligence to penetrate the organisation. Compartmentalisation of information was taken to an insane level, the communications security was top class (no evesdropping on their comms), and very worryingly, have a very good counter-intelligence activity. The fact that Israeli soldiers were using mobile phones was stupid, and Hizbollah is reported to have hacked into the mobile phone network, tracked their movements and in many cases, ambushes were setup. Also, by knowing their movements, they hid their rockets!

On the Israeli side, they did not have human agents inside Hizbollah, the Christian Maronites were not used, high turnover of israeli officers within the services, lower priority given to tactical intelligence gathering over strategic reporting, and sadly, even when they did have reports, they did not distribute them effectively or efficiently to the ground forces. End result? well, we all know it.

Now India and Israel are collaborating closely, but I wonder if the Israeli forces read the Kargil report from a few years back? Here is a good overview of that report and here is another. Here is a good conference review on the conflict. I strongly believe that the intelligence agencies should review and read these again.

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

Publicity is the oxygen of terrorism

Breaking News is that Manipur State Government in India has banned the glorification of terrorism and a huge load of other media restrictions on what can be reported on the terrorist groups. Now this is a very good ethical question, where does freedom of speech end and security considerations start? Two trite cliches help can help. (1) free speech does not mean shouting fire in a crowded theater and (2) your right of free speech ends at the tip of my nose. So as long as free speech does not lead to security issues, crime and/or violence, it is free. Now the next question is, who judges where is this boundary? because there is nothing more important to a democracy than a fearless free press.

That is where a newspaper ombudsman, a regulator of information and finally a free court /legal system comes in to control and challenge any bad implementations of the security laws which can overload the security aspects versus the free speech aspects.

Speaking from a pure counter-terrorism perspective, I would say that a communications strategy is vital, because not only you want the terrorist voice to be stopped, but you also want to be trusted enough to tell the truth by being generally open. If the state is considered to be hiding things, then trust breaks down, conspiracy theories run amok and it all ends in tears.

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!

'Why no memorial for the IPKF in India?' (Two decades of Indo-Sri Lanka accord)

'Why no memorial for the IPKF in India?' (Two decades of Indo-Sri Lanka accord) - Yahoo! India News

Leaving aside the politics of the situation, the main reason behind why there is no memorial to the IPKF in India is because that was the first time that Indian forces were defeated very publicly. But some lessons were learnt from that disaster and the indian anti insurgency training and results in the North East, Kashmir and Punjab reflects that. I believe that that people forgot how to fight in tropical jungles, and this was after Malaya, Vietnam, Laos, and the other examples in Central America.

It is also important for UN Peacekeeping and Peace enforcement missions to know how easily it is to slip from peacekeeping missions to peace-enforcement. And because peace keeping operations are so lightly equipped as well as tied up in knots with very specific rules of engagement, they find it extraordinarily difficult to switch and frequently fall over. But this operation was the classic everything went wrong operation. I would say that the only saving grace is that the Indian forces withdrew with 1155 casualties, a very expensive mistake. But it still didn't learn the lessons and had to relearn the lessons in Kargil. Also see here for a good overview.

Update: 29/July/2007: A heart rending story follows of the Kargil war.