Thursday, September 9

Some references on population and fertility growth

An email which i sent around.

Population forecasting (and all the attendant and associated aspects) is a strange research area, and almost impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy. The variables are just too many to  cater for, leave alone trying to establish the degree of correlation or causality between them. But economic conditions do have a bearing on population, so do cultural aspects. Here are some more examples:

1. Russia

2. more links on fertility decline

3. Belligerence produces more fertility for example in Israel and Palestine

4. Iran is an example of where population shifts have happened quite often.

5. Here is another view on Egypt's fertility situation.

6. And , here's an interesting research article on India, albeit a bit old. I quote:

There has been a significant decline in fertility in many parts of India since the early 1980s.
This paper reexamines the determinants of fertility levels and fertility decline, using panel data
on Indian districts for 1981 and 1991. We find that women's education is the most important
factor explaining fertility differences across the country and over time. Low levels of child
mortality and son preference also contribute to lower fertility. By contrast, general indicators
of modernization and development such as urbanization, poverty reduction and male literacy
bear no significant association with fertility.

Also look at this chapter for a good overview of the theories behind fertility, population in India.

The UN Population Division does some excellent work in this area.

Finally, the question of food availability is yet another major issue in its own right. Intensive farming is a must and food / dietary changes which accompany economic growth has also important implications on this issue. Incidentally, I was trying to find a good stock opportunity to invest in global food producing firms given this change and missed out on that. But that's an argument for another day.

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