Iraqi attitudes continue to shift toward secular values or are they?

Here are two stories, both from respected organisations, both claiming diametrically opposite views. The first one, based on a survey, claims that Iraqi's are becoming a nation, increasingly secular and nationalistic. The other one is claiming that this nationalism view is rare and despite the football victory, its going down the toilet. How is it possible that such a wide divergence takes place? Well, the clue lies in the survey, as you can see, the survey was primarily carried out in Baghdad, a cosmopolitan place anyway, so one would expect that secularism and nationalism, so close to the levers of power, would be but normal.

But as we have seen, the challenge to the nation of Iraq is coming not from Baghdad itself but from outside. See here for a previous essay on the future of Iraq.

==============
Aug. 2, 2007
Iraqi attitudes continue to shift toward secular values

ANN ARBOR, Mich.—The political values of Iraqis are increasingly secular and nationalistic, according to a series of surveys of nationally representative samples of the population from December 2004-March 2007.

Findings from a July 2007 survey are expected to be released before the end of the summer.
Click image to see slideshow of charts

So far, the surveys show a decline in popular support for religious government in Iraq and an increase in support for secular political rule, said sociologist Mansoor Moaddel, who is affiliated with Eastern Michigan University and the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research (ISR).

"Iraqis have a strong sense of national identity that transcends religious and political lines," Moaddel said. "The recent out-pouring of national pride at the Asian Cup victory of the Iraqi soccer team showed that this sense of national pride remains strong, despite all the sectarian strife and violence."

In the March 2007 survey, 54 percent of Iraqis surveyed described themselves as "Iraqis, above all," (as opposed to "Muslims, above all" or "Arabs, above all") compared with just 28 percent who described themselves that way in April 2006. Three-quarters of Iraqis living in Baghdad said they thought of themselves in terms of their national identity, as Iraqis above all.

"This is a much higher proportion than we found in other Middle Eastern capitals," said Moaddel, adding that such high levels of national identity may counteract tendencies to split the nation based on sectarian differences.

The surveys conducted in December 2004 and April 2006 were supported by grants from the National Science Foundation to U-M political scientists Ronald Inglehart and Mark Tessler. Moaddel collaborated on those surveys, then added some of the same questions to an October 2006 survey of 7,730 Iraqis supervised by the Multinational Forces Assessment Effects Group. In March 2007, Moaddel collaborated with Iraqi social scientist Munqith Daghir, adding the same questions to another survey of 7,411 Iraqis. The surveys were conducted by a private Iraqi research group headed by Daghir, the Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies.

The proportion of Shi's, Sunnis and Kurds interviewed in each of the surveys was roughly representative of their presence in the population, according to Moaddel.

Overall, only 18 percent of those surveyed in October 2006 thought that having an Islamic government where religious authorities have absolute power is "very good," compared with 26 percent surveyed in December 2004.

About a third of those surveyed in March 2007 strongly agreed that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics were separated, compared with 24 percent in December 2004.

Additionally, Moaddel found a significant increase from April 2006 to October 2006 in the percent of Iraqis who gave six religious political parties a very unfavorable rating.

"The escalating violence in Iraq gives a bleak impression of that country's future," Moaddel said. "Sectarian conflict seems to be increasing on a daily basis, with militias massacring hundreds of Sunnis and Shi'is solely on the basis of their religious identities.

"Yet it would be a mistake to think that this bloodlust represents widespread sentiment among Iraqis as a whole. While neither American nor Iraqi security officials have yet found a way to tame the militias, the Iraqi public is increasingly drawn toward a vision of a democratic, non-sectarian government for the country."



Related Links:

U-M Institute for Social Research

Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies

Mansoor Moaddel



Contact: Diane Swanbrow
Phone: (734) 647-4416


======================

A winning goal, then back to war

Aug 2nd 2007
From The Economist print edition

The euphoria of a footballing victory faded fast

JUST when it looks as if salvaging a unified Iraq will be hopeless, there comes a reminder of how strongly many Iraqis still want to live together in a single nation. Iraq's 1-0 victory over Saudi Arabia in the final game of the Asian Cup in Jakarta on July 29th set off a wave of celebrations. Fans ignored the danger of car bombs (which had killed 50 after the Iraqi victory in the semi-finals) as well as the risk of falling bullets (fired into the air to celebrate despite a ban) and poured onto the streets. After the semi-finals, crowds waved the Iraqi flag in the northern city of Arbil, where it is normally denounced by the Kurds as the symbol of the army which waged genocidal war against them. And children in the militantly Shia Baghdad slum of Sadr City chanted the name of Younis Mahmoud, the striker whose goal won the game and who is a Sunni.

Such outpourings of Iraqi nationalism are rare, but they happen. Often they follow a tragedy, such as when Sunnis risked their lives diving into the Tigris to save hundreds of Shia pilgrims who fell into the river after the collapse of a bridge in 2005. At other times they act to prevent a tragedy, such as when Shia clerics called on their followers, apparently successfully, not to retaliate against innocent Sunnis after the second bombing of the al-Askari shine in Samarra in June of this year. Iraqis will also occasionally speak of smaller, more private acts of national unity, such as Sunnis caring for their Shia neighbours' houses after the latter have been run out of them by insurgents.

In honour of the win, the Sunnis' main coalition, the Iraqi Consensus Front, put off a decision on whether to withdraw from the Shia-led government, so as not to spoil the day's joy. A lovely sentiment. But on August 1st it decided—and it withdrew.

The footballing victory has therefore done little to overcome a political deadlock that has stymied proposed legislation on oil sharing and a partial roll-back of the purge that threw many members of the former ruling Baath party out of their jobs. The glow of sporting glory faded further when Iraq's parliament announced that in spite of the continuing strife it would take a month's break in August. And on the first day of that month the bombers were back. More than 60 people were killed in two bombings in Baghdad.