Tough question, no? Something that has not been discussed widely. Its a bit early in the process anyway. Its just recently that the Homar President announced that he has got 3000 centrifuges working. So they are still about 3-4 years away from weaponisation.
Be that as it may, it may well happen like it did with India, Pakistan and North Korea. What then? Well, a nice little recent research paper explores this question in good comprehensive detail.
One has to remember that a military strike against Iran is only possible till it does not have a nuclear weapon. Only an idiot will launch a conventional strike against a nuclear powered weapon.
Remember what the Indian General said after the first Gulf War? Go to war with USA only when you have a nuclear weapon. So Iran has all the reason in the world to carry out a nuclear test on its own soil. But if it does do this, the pressure on USA for a military strike will be ginormous. And Israel can and might as well strike back hard.
There is also a smaller possibility that it carries out a nuclear test through its proxies from Hizbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda or other bits and bobs in Israel or perhaps even in Europe/USA.
Do not forget that Iran has been known to carry out intelligence operations in Europe. Although if Iran uses its proxies for a nuclear strike against Israel or USA, Iran could well be almost instantaneously incinerated and obliterated by Israel and USA. Israel has second strike capability.
I quote the conclusion of this report:
The United States must continue to examine and predict the likely sequence of events and outcomes of Iran acquiring a nuclear device. Based on the options that have been explored, the most likely scenario is for Iran to conduct an unannounced underground nuclear test. This would achieve its primary objectives of continued self-preservation and the implementation of a permanent nuclear deterrent. In light of this accomplishment for Iran, the global economy would be rattled in anticipation of severe military and political actions being leveled against Tehran. Military action would be more likely as tensions flared. The best solution for the United States and the United Nations would be to address the issues that caused Iran to pursue the path of acquiring nuclear arms. The international community has an interest in doing all that is possible to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!!!
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